Production | Summer 2008
Get ready for a revolution.
By Clare Stanfield
The face of farming is changing. And what's happened over the past 10 years, say these industry observers, is just a foretaste of what's to come.
We've all heard it: farmers are getting older, farms are getting bigger, young people aren't returning; the generalized forecast for agriculture can sometimes seem a little gloomy.
But talk to those working the front lines of primary food production, along with research, technical, finance and other farm service providers, and you get a different picture.
Asked what they think Canadian agriculture will be like in 10 years time, these people recognize the challenges, but also see an industry ready to shuffle off the status quo and do things differently. Here are some of their thoughts:
Rob Saik, CEO, Agri-Trend Group of Companies
Ten years ago, Agri-Trend began as an independent agrology consultancy. Today it encompasses three different companies designed to help growers capitalize on opportunities, and Saik is constantly scanning the horizon for the next big trend.
"One thing I'm keeping my eye on is societal change and the shift toward green-based economies," he says. He describes this environmentally-friendly approach to the way things work in terms of red-box and green-box solutions.
At its simplest, red-box solutions solve a specific and immediate problem such as drought relief. Society sees the need and supports government aid programs to help farmers but it's a one-off solution. Green-box solutions take the long view to change with the societal goal of being more environmentally conscious.
Take the desire for green space versus urban sprawl as an example. "People say they'd like to see more green space between Calgary and Red Deer. If that's the case, then policies need to be put in place to pay farmers for land they could otherwise sell to developers," says Saik. "Society often says agriculture should do this or that, but farmers need to get paid. I think people are becoming more willing for this to happen."
Saik predicts new trends in food production: "I see a day when we don't buy grain based purely on grades, but on nutrient density. On the management front, farmers are going to continue to surround themselves with outside expertise. On the carbon offsets debate, agriculture has to become more forceful in helping to mold policy."
As he sees it, "there's going to be a lot of change in agriculture in the next 10 years." Hang on to your hat.
Ed Lefsrud, President, Canadian Seed Growers' Association
Ed Lefsrud started farming in 1965, and has been a seed grower since 1970. In that time, he's seen a lot of change from his 4,800-acre farm near Viking, AB. For him, labour availability and mentoring the next generation are two issues among many that will shape the future.
Lefsrud sees the very nature of farm work continuing to change as farms get bigger and require more business management. "Farmers are going to have to get comfortable at the desk and know the work's getting done outside," he says.
The question is: who's doing the work? "As farmers we have the land and we have the knowledge to grow crops - what we need is a modern version of the harvest brigade." He sees this as a public responsibility, and envisions a time when people-rich industries, like oil and gas, share human resources in off-seasons.
An aviator, Lefsrud is inspired by that industry's emphasis on mentoring younger generations into the business. "I talk about this all the time," he says. "How to get the old guys to encourage the young guys." For him, this is critical for agriculture's path forward, and he sees the recent increased public attention on agriculture and food as a positive step in this direction. "There is a pride of ownership in the industry. Agriculture has a sweeter ring than it did four or five years ago."
Ross Bricker, President and CEO, AVAC Ltd.
Ross Bricker still lives on his century family farm. He spent time in biotech research, policy and ag finance before moving to AVAC, an organization specializing in early stage, value-added opportunities in agriculture.
Bricker sees a significant trend toward outside investment in agriculture, in land primarily, and this could be a big stabilizing force for primary producers.
"There will continue to be a change in ownership structure, with more absentee landlords," he says. "Agriculture is the buzzword in finance right now." Private and institutional investors are always looking for high returns and reasonable risk, he notes. "They see agriculture as undervalued, so it's a viable buying option for them."
He says this will help primary producers who want to expand. "If I'm a farmer with 3,000 acres and want to grow, the decision for me is: do I borrow to buy land, or do I go with investors looking for a trusted partner who will look after their investment - the land?"
The change in ownership structure, says Bricker, is driving increased sophistication in decision-making and management. Is it a sea change? Yes and no. There are still family farms, says Bricker. They're just bigger and have better cash flow. FF
